Chiosa
Machine Learning

A reporting framework shows how return timing shifts financial NLP labels

2 min
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In parole semplici

Financial language studies may use a whole earnings call to predict stock returns even when the return measurement starts before the call is finished. The Availability Contract is a reporting framework that makes researchers explain when the input is complete and how they choose the return window.

In an audit of 552 calls, the researchers moved the return start from a call-start estimate to an audio-completion estimate, allowing 15 minutes for processing. The return changed from positive to negative, or vice versa, for 9.4% of calls. The timing points were estimates, not observed completion times.

La ricerca

When a financial language benchmark uses a full earnings-call transcript or recording to predict stock movement, what does its result mean if the return window begins before the call ends?

It may capture price movement during the disclosure, rather than prediction after the complete input is available.

The Availability Contract records input boundaries, timing evidence and return clocks so financial benchmark claims match what those clocks support.

The authors apply the contract to earnings calls by comparing returns with a shared endpoint but different starts: a documentary call-start proxy and an audio-completion proxy with a 15-minute allowance. Among 552 paired calls, moving to the completion proxy changed the return sign for 9.4% of calls.

Because the same calls and endpoint are compared, the result shows that the return target depends on the chosen start time. A completion proxy makes the timing assumption explicit, but it does not establish when the full input or model was actually ready.

The audit uses retrospective timing proxies. It does not observe when transcripts or model inference were complete, so it supports conclusions aligned with those proxies, not verified post-input prediction or deployment claims.

Analisi

Dettagli

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